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Friday, November 20 2015

According to ANZ's Stateometer Queensland has shown the greatest improvement over the September quarter, with the annual pace of growth rising nearer to its trend rate. Queensland is alos showing the second fastest pace of employment growth behind NSW.


The rebalancing of the national economy continues with a solid pick-up in the annual pace of economic activity in Queensland.  As the third largest economy in Australia, signs of economic momentum are encouraging, and lend further support to signs that the non-mining sectors are picking up.

The decline in mining investment in Queensland has led to a sharp contraction in state final demand. While significant, this is perhaps not representative of activity in the broader economy, which has picked up noticeably over the year. The state’s monthly data flow picked up across household, business and labour force indicators. 


Of key importance to the rebalancing of the national economy is the role of the services sectors. These industries, typically labour intensive, have helped to lift the trend employment-to-population ratio in NSW, Victoria, Tasmania, and Queensland. These states are also the ones that are showing the strongest economic performance on the ANZ Stateometer.

Residential construction has and will continue to be important to supporting employment (in construction and several services industries). Commercial construction, outside of mining, should also play a greater role for some states, with the outlook for non-residential construction looking better in some sectors such as tourism and government-backed infrastructure. 

Posted by: Greg Carroll AT 02:15 am   |  Permalink   |  Email
Thursday, November 05 2015
Brisbane house prices still rising: HTW

Herron Todd White's November property clock notes that Brisbane house prices are still is in a rising phase. Brisbane is gaining a reputation as Australia's most affordable eastern capital with price growth potential, according to Herron Todd White.

As we noted last month Brisbane Units have however reached there peak and concens of over-suuply are building.

Posted by: Greg Carroll AT 11:14 pm   |  Permalink   |  Email
Thursday, November 05 2015

The gap between Sydney and Brisbane house prices is starting to bear fruit for developers and vendors in the Queensland capital with dozens of southern buyers taking the plunge.

For about a year the gap between Sydney and Brisbane had been expanding but evidence of southern buyers jumping was not that noticeable by agents and developers.

Now it is.

Listed developers such as Stockland and Mirvac have seen more Sydney buyers for Brisbane artments and private developers such as Tim Gurner have also recorded as much as 40 per cent of investors were from Sydney.

The latest QBE LMI Australian Housing Outlook report prepared by BIS Shrapnel indicates some concerns over a potential oversupply of apartments in Brisbane.

National Property Research Co director Matthew Gross sees the price differential between ­Brisbane and Sydney as more ­influential in driving a property boom than the fundamentals such as the state's unemployment and population growth.

"It's bizarre but it's true," Mr Gross said.


Posted by: Greg Carroll AT 10:06 pm   |  Permalink   |  Email
Wednesday, November 04 2015

I believe the reason most people procrastinate is FEAR. They are afraid of the risks associated with investing. They focus on all the things that could go wrong “the what ifs” and console themselves that it is much safer to nothing.

This is however untrue, as doing nothing and delaying actually increases risk and increases the problem.

If you decided you needed $2 million by retirement would you sooner have 30 years to accumulate it or 5 years?

If you start early then you have a lot of time to build to this number which means your risk level is low. You can take small incremental steps and you will be less concerned and impacted by the markets ups and downs.

Investing earlier means your investments have the opportunity to go through a number of investment cycles. Think of each investment cycle as an opportunity to double your money. The more cycles you go through the more chances to double your money.

And if things did go “pear-shaped” you still have time to start and rebuild again.

If you wait to take action until 5 years before retirement then you have a very steep hill to climb in a short space of time. To achieve your target you will need to take a more aggressive investment approach, you will be vulnerable to market volatility and if things go wrong you will not have time to rebuild. So this is a high risk approach.

The longer we delay action we are actually putting ourselves in a position where we will need to take greater risk to achieve our goals.

Yet this is actually what most people to. They delay and defer until they don’t have a choice and then take on riskier investments with promise of higher growth or higher returns. And that’s how we end up with situations like Storm Financial and Banksia where people lose everything.

As the saying goes “The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second best time is today”.

Posted by: Greg Carroll AT 09:16 am   |  Permalink   |  Email
Monday, November 02 2015

According to a new QBE housing outlook prepared by BIS Shrapnel Brisbane is predicted to be the standout performer between 2015-16 and 2017-18. The report has forecast cumulative price growth of 13.2 per cent for houses and 2.3 per cent for units.

However in other capitals the picture is not so rosy.

In Sydney house price growth will slow from 22.3 per cent in 2014-15 to 7.3 per cent in 2015-16 – and then prices will then fall 2.7 per cent in 2016-17 and another 2.3 per cent in 2017-18. Unit median prices are expected to follow a similar trajectory, with growth of 14.6 per cent in FY15 to be followed by growth of 4.8 per cent in FY16, a decline of 2.7 per cent in FY17 and a decline of 3.5 per cent in FY18.

Hobart is forecast to experience a 4.9 per cent increase in house prices and a 2.2 per cent decrease in unit prices, while Canberra house prices are expected to rise 3.4 per cent and unit prices fall 2.7 per cent. Melbourne values will climb 2.8 per cent for houses but fall 4.9 per cent for units. Adelaide house prices will go up 0.8 per cent, while unit prices will fall 0.8 per cent.

Perth is forecast to experience a decline of 2.4 per cent in house prices and five per cent in unit prices, while Darwin is expected to see falls of 2.5 per cent for houses and 5.2 per cent for units.

Contact us to get your investment plans moving

Posted by: Greg Carroll AT 02:26 am   |  Permalink   |  Email