Thursday, March 26 2015
Dos
1. If you travel to inspect or repair your property, or to collect rent, you may be able to claim the cost of your trip.
2. Keep records of the travel expenses that you have claimed and be ready to show your reason of the trips if audited.
3. Apportion expenses of your trip to the property if there is a mix of rental and private reasons. For example, linking to the visit to a holiday.
4. If your property is far away from where you live, and you need to stay overnight due to the distance, you may be able to claim the local expenses incurred. For example, cost of meals and accommodation.
5. If you co-own a property with your partner and he or she travels to the property to carry out repairs, the cost of travel can be shared between you both in line with your legal interest in the property.
Don'ts
1. Do not claim travel expenses that are incidental to the main purpose of the trip. For example, if you pick up rent on the way to work, because the main purpose of your trip is private and you cannot claim any cost of this trip.
2. If you fly to inspect your rental property while also having a holiday there, do not claim the cost of airfares as it is mainly private. But local expenses incurred there may be deductible, such as taxi fares to get to the property.
3. Do not claim travel expenses incurred before the property is available for rent. For example, travelling to inspect the property before it was purchased.
4. If you use your rental property as a holiday house and you stay there for a holiday, do not claim the cost of travel as the trips are private.
5. If you are the sole owner of the property and your partner uses his or her vehicle to get to the property for repairs and maintenance, neither of you can claim any of the travel expenses.
Tuesday, March 24 2015
Housing affordability is declining in Brisbane. In 2012 85 out of 173 suburbs had a median price below $550,000. This has now fallen to 73 suburbs, or 42.2 per cent. And only 40 suburbs priced at $500,000 and below.
Monday, March 23 2015
(SOURCE: Property Observer)
A CLSA analyst says interest rates in Australia will be less than 1% within two years and could even go to zero.
Christopher Wood, the managing director and chief strategist of the Asian-based equity broking and investment firm, made the forecast in an interview with The Australian Financial Review.
"I think less than 1% within the next two years. They are going to end up a lot lower than people still imagine," said Wood.
The AFR notes the most recent Bloomberg survey of economists indicates an average interest rate forecast of 2% for the end of the year and the first quarter of 2016.
Wood told investors to sell US mortgage securities before the subprime disaster.
"It's not whether interest rates go up, it's whether Australian interest rates go to zero," Wood said.
"When I was in Australia 15 months ago everyone thought that interest rates had bottomed and were going up. But now there is greater awareness among fund managers that it is going to stay lower for longer."
Wood said the drop in gross domestic product means the Reserve Bank of Australia needs to keep cutting interest rates, but it is caught in a difficult position.
"The issue from Australia's central bank standpoint is that it doesn't want to cut interest rates because of the housing market which, from a value point of view, is overextended," he said.
"You do have asset price rises driven by Chinese buying. But the bank is under pressure to cut rates, so I think it will have to come down to macroprudential controls and they are very political."
Friday, March 20 2015
Two recent reports have flagged the strongest areas for price growth in Queensland. The results will no doubt be a surprise to many as they bust some myths about the best areas for growth.
The latest data from Real Estate Institute of Queensland (REIQ) reveals that Ipswich ranks as the strongest Queensland price growth region. Ipswich's median house price increased by 6.7% over the quarter, the largest gain recorded by any area across Queensland.
Brisbane’s while improving only moved by 3.4% over the same period.
Meanwhile Hotspotting’s latest price predictor report has Logan City as the number one predicted growth region in Australia. The Price Predictor Index is a tool based on trends in sales volumes which provide an indicator of future price movements.
Logan City has more growth suburbs than any other Local Government Area in Australia with 4 of the nation’s top 30 rising suburbs. Hotspotting puts Logan’s performance down to its affordability, good road and rail links, proximity to jobs nodes, and abundance of schools and shopping options.
These reports again bust the myth that the closer you are to the CBD the better the growth. Unfortunately many would be investors turn their nose up at areas like Ipswich or Logan City because of preconceived ideas about the market or potential tenants without any actual data to back up their beliefs.
I’m not certain of the origins of this myth but often when we ask people what their investment plans are – many say they want to buy close to the city because they believe that’s where you obtain the best growth.
Our own research tells us that good growth opportunities exist in many places and if you limit your focus to inner city only then you are cutting yourself off from significant upside gains.
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Thursday, March 19 2015
Many people are reluctant to actively invest for their retirment because they are concerned about risk. Therefore they choose to do nothing believing this is a "safe bet". Unfortunately inaction carries with it as much risk as taking action. In fact I would argue greater risk.
Warren Buffet, one of the worlds wealthiest indivuals, highlighted this in his recent letter to his clients. The simple message - if you try to play it safe by holding cash you will go backwards.
By way of example he compared the performance of holding the S&P500 with holding cash over a 50 year period. The S&P 500 achieved a 11,196 per cent return as opposed to cash which depreciated by 87 per cent over the same period.
At certain points in time cash may be a safe haven but it is only effective in the short term. Over the long term (with the correct approach and advice) assets like property and shares will grow in value while the real value of cash will go backwards. Sure you can reinvest interest in your cash holdings but what are you actually doing? Your rate of return is only matching the inflation rate so at best you are treading water but after tax you are steadily going backward.
Assuming an average rate of inflation of 3% the real value of $100,000 would reduce by more than $25,000 over 10 years. If that was $1 million dollars then that would be more $250,000.
The reality is there's no such thing as playing it safe. But if you choose to do nothing your outcome is guranteed.
Thursday, March 19 2015
BIS Shrapnel says pent up demand, a push by investors into the market and an undersupply of new housing stock will drive a 14% surge in Brisbane house price over the next 2 years to June 2017. Pushing the market further out of reach of first-home buyers and driving up rents.
Beyond 2017, house prices will continue to rise in markets like Sydney and Brisbane, but at a more moderate pace, as higher interest rates impact on demand.
Thursday, March 19 2015
Last week I wrote about my concerns with what appears to be a emerging over supply of units in Brisbane. What's the big risk for the Brisbane market.
BIS Shrapnel has made similar observations this week suggesting we are building the wrong thing. Too many units and not enough detached housing. With the potential for a 10% fall in prices.
Melbourne, Brisbane each face glut of 15,000 apartments within two years, BIS Shrapnel predicts
Australia will run into a glut of apartments in just two years led by Melbourne and Brisbane - but other cities including Adelaide are also building more than they need, research house BIS Shrapnel predicts.
By June next year, the country is likely to have more than 74,000 apartment completions, which is 5000 more apartments than it needs. In Melbourne, which faces a surplus of 15,000 apartments, prices are likely to fall 10 per cent over the next three years, BIS Shrapnel says.
The predictions, which show an aggregate stock overhang even as Sydney continues to be underserved on higher-density dwellings, lay bare the uneven nature of Australia's house-building economy. By June next year, the NSW capital will still have a deficiency of nearly 30,000 apartments.
Having led the growth of high-rise dwellings on a scale not yet seen, Melbourne's construction industry needed to change tack to avoid being hit by the glut, said BIS Shrapnel associate director Kim Hawtrey.
"Now is the time to start sounding the alarm," Dr Hawtrey said.
"We're probably building too many apartments and not enough detached houses and we may find we have an unbalanced result in a couple of years' time. We need to increasingly re-orientate the housing recovery to build more detached houses and fewer attached dwellings."
The figures that predict 74,159 attached-dwelling completions in the year to June 2016 include townhouses and semi-detached dwellings as well as apartment buildings of four storeys' height and above. But the glut "essentially" would be in high-rise, as this was a component of the market most driven by local and offshore investors, Dr Hawtrey said.
The forecaster, which started warning about an apartment overhang in Melbourne a year ago, is now also ramping up warnings about Brisbane and Adelaide.
Brisbane's voracious appetite for apartment construction has resulted in a stock surplus that dates back at least to 2006, but that glut is about to triple from 5000 from last financial year to 15,000 by next year, BIS Shrapnel says.
Adelaide's oversupply of apartments, which has been constant at 6000 for the past three years, is likely to grow by a third to 8000 by June next year.
The glut of high-rise dwellings contrasts with a continuing shortage of detached dwellings. Even with completions of detached houses ramping up, the country will face a shortfall of 56,207, BIS Shrapnel predicts. NSW will have a deficit of 25,000 detached houses on top of its apartment shortfall, but Queensland will also have a detached house deficit of more than 20,000 dwellings. SA will have a deficit of about 1500 detached houses.
WA will also have a deficit by next year of about 6000 houses - down from the current 20,000, reflecting the state's strong production pipeline - and apartment shortfall of 4000, less than half the current figure near 9000, BIS Shrapnel says.
The oversupply of apartments was likely to coincide with a rise in interest rates that was likely to cause the Reserve Bank of Australia's cash rate to rise by about 1 percentage point from the current record-low 2.25 per cent, BIS Shrapnel managing director Rob Mellor said. This would also raise the borrowing costs developers face at a time of weakening demand, he said.
"In percentage terms these are significant increases," Mr Mellor said.
(SOURCE: Austrlian Financial Review)
Friday, March 13 2015
The Brisbane market has been on a steady albeit modest recovery since 2012 but their are significant risks emerging which could see substantial losses for some.
I saw the below article last week and it has me pretty concerned about over-supply in the Brisbane unit market. Many of these units are being built in inner city suburbs like the Valley, South Bank, and West End. Sure these areas are artractive from a lifestyle perspective but these areas are already heavily saturated with units that have achieved limited price growth over an extended period and in many cases have seen declining prices.
They are also markets that have demonstrated fairly sluggish rental growth.
Given that many of these projects are being realsed at the same time it is likely they will completed and settle around the same time. The potential impact of thousands of units coming onto the market at once is a sharp decline in values and increased vacancy levels.
This means for people purchasing off the plan they may find that the unit they purchased values for less than the contract price. And for those looking for it to be an investment there could be extended periods of vacancy or reduced rents achieved.
Since this article was released I have seen the announcement of several more projects and off the plan sales.
How it plays out only time will tell but I would be exercising a fair degree of caution and if I did proceed would have in place a substantial buffer to fund any devaluations on the property.
Remember once you sign an off the plan contract it is unconditional which means you have to settle of lose your deposit.
Brisbane’s off the plan apartment market is smashing all previous records within a three month period with a staggering 1621 unconditional sales taking place.
Apartments sold during this quarter revealed a weighted sale price increasing to $551,558 from a recorded $545, 478 during the three month period to September 2014, a figure which remains relatively unchanged.
An apartment “boom” was evident with a total of 12 new projects released during the December 2014 quarter, spanning a colossal 2760 new apartments – more apartments in a single quarter than during the entire 2013 calendar year.
The report identified that the most unconditional sales of the December 2014 quarter arose from the inner-northern Brisbane off the plan apartment market, which included 620 unconditional transactions with a weighted average price of $481,774, representing 38 per cent of all sales during the period.
Thursday, March 12 2015
(Source: AFG Mortgage Index)
Mortgages processed last month by AFG, Australia’s largest mortgage broker, surged 58% higher than in January, and 16% higher than in February 2014, according to the latest AFG Mortgage Index.
The $4.3 billion of mortgages processed in February included a record $280 million processed on the last Wednesday, 25th February, the largest single day’s volume AFG has recorded in its 21 year history.
Mortgage volumes varied significantly from state to state, with South Australia showing the greatest increase of 31% on February 2014, with NSW up by 25%, VIC by 21%, QLD by 15% and WA going backwards, processing 4% less in volume than in February 2014.
Mark Hewitt, General Manager of Sales and Operations (pictured) said the figures were encouraging.
‘February is the real start to the mortgage year and overall we’re off to a flying start this year. No doubt the February rate cut has made borrowers more confident, but it’s important to recognize the significant variations from one state to another,” Mr Hewitt said.
“We’re also keeping a close eye on the proportion of investors, but this hasn’t changed on the levels we’ve been seeing for the past twelve months.”
Loans to investors comprised 39.6% of all home loans processed last month, a similar figure to those reported each month for the past year.
Fixed rate mortgages declined as a percentage of all home loans to 13.6%, its lowest since August 2011 when only 9.4% of borrowers chose fixed rate loans. The rise of Introductory loans continued to a fresh high of 7.9% last month, indicating the proportion of borrowers.
Wednesday, March 11 2015
(Source: The Urban Developer)
Australia’s population is likely to greatly exceed the Intergenerational Report’s (IGR4) forecast of 39.7 million people by 2055, according to advisory group MacroPlan Dimasi.
The baseline assumption in the IGR4 is that net overseas migration will average 215,000 people per annum.
However, MacroPlan Dimasi Chairman Brian Haratsis believes the annual increase is likely to be closer to 300,000 persons per annum, even if the national permanent migrant intake is not substantially raised.
“Australia’s economy has become more dependent on long-term temporary residents, including overseas university students, skilled workers and family visitors,” Mr Haratsis said.
“Recent history has shown that sectors leading economic growth are dependent on our temporary residents. Our healthcare, professional services and tertiary education sectors provide leading edges to jobs growth.”
The 16 million new Australian’s will drive demand for around 12 million homes, 32 million sqm of retail floorspace and 160 million sqm of office floorspace. By 2055 both Melbourne and Sydney are likely to be the same size as Chicago is today at 9 million people.
MacroPlan Dimasi argues that it is now time for a refresh of macroeconomic policy, with a focus on industry perspectives (rather than industry policy).
“It is clear that both monetary and fiscal policy, as sources for momentum, are close to exhausted. Moving forward, Governments will need to offer more detailed and considered analysis of how the economy is evolving” Mr Haratsis said.
One area policy makers should be focussing on is the tourism sector, which is complex as a source of demand for transport infrastructure, retail services and property investment. Our services for overseas tourists are thriving, but this sector remains undervalued and misunderstood.
“Framing actions for the next 40 years will require thoughtful assessment of the global services boom, as it collides with the digital revolution and growth in Asian middle class wealth,” he said
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